2017 Thoughts for Control4

[mod220]

2 hours ago, eggzlot said:

c4 is not competing against apple, google and amazon

Like hell they’re not

just because they have much broader platforms and are not limited to being just a home automation company, doesn’t mean they’re not competitors.  You don’t think C4 is watching them like a hawk each day?  This is getting silly

[eggzlot]

12 minutes ago, mod220 said:

Like hell they’re not

just because they have much broader platforms and are not limited to being just a home automation company, doesn’t mean they’re not competitors.  You don’t think C4 is watching them like a hawk each day?  This is getting silly

Amazon, Apple and google have a piece of business around controlling devices mostly with voice control.  C4 doesn’t have their own voice platform and they offer a platform to connect devices.  C4 makes networking gear.  The others don’t.  C4 makes video distribution products - other don’t.  C4 makes light switches.  C4 makes Hifi speakers for theater set ups - the others don't.  Google makes a Tstat as does C4 - there happy?  Where is google, amazon or apples platform that competes with c4 - you said yourself those platforms cannot do what c4 can do.  You may not need it or want it, but that’s another story.

i always default to a car analogy- Ferrari is not competing with Jeep.  One is an SUV and one is a luxury sports car.  They both shine in some aspects but different sales volume, clients, targets etc

is they overlap sure.  Direct competitors eh. Weak argument.  It’s a free county to think so but NASDAQ doesn’t think so when you search a symbol and it matches to competitors.  

[msgreenf]

I don't view Apple, Google or Amazon as direct competitors.  Are they competitors yes, direct no.  C4 doesn't make phones or computers....They don't make a free OS that is the most popular mobile OS on the planet.  They are just not trying to do the same thing today.  Can Apple and Google and whomever you pick be a direct competitor some day? yes. but they aren't today and in the 4 years of homekit it's proven to be anything but a direct competitor.  can apple change that? yes, will they, IDK?  They are trading at an all time high, so why should they?

[msgreenf]

The most striking thing about this thread is that you clearly want control4.  Why else would you be here?  That means it fulfills capabilities that other products don't in the market.  That means that the tradeoffs of a dealer model were worthy enough for you to look at because it does so much more.  If it didn't do more for you and leave you intrigued you would have went to best buy and been screwing in BT light bulbs and putting ATV's in every room and be done.

So what about HomeKit don't you like that you want to change control4?

[eggzlot]

15 minutes ago, msgreenf said:

I don't view Apple, Google or Amazon as direct competitors.  Are they competitors yes, direct no.  C4 doesn't make phones or computers....They don't make a free OS that is the most popular mobile OS on the planet.  They are just not trying to do the same thing today.  Can Apple and Google and whomever you pick be a direct competitor some day? yes. but they aren't today and in the 4 years of homekit it's proven to be anything but a direct competitor.  can apple change that? yes, will they, IDK?  They are trading at an all time high, so why should they?

Exactly.  Any of those big 3 - toss in Samsung or LG etc, can buy c4 and make it appear like a rounding error.  If Apple wanted homekit to take over the market they have the money and might.  But 4 years of a homekit roadmap speaks a different story.  It’s a viable product.  If works for you fine.  Go enjoy and report back to a forum that is about general home control topics. 

[therockhr]

41 minutes ago, msgreenf said:

The most striking thing about this thread is that you clearly want control4.  Why else would you be here?  That means it fulfills capabilities that other products don't in the market.  That means that the tradeoffs of a dealer model were worthy enough for you to look at because it does so much more.  If it didn't do more for you and leave you intrigued you would have went to best buy and been screwing in BT light bulbs and putting ATV's in every room and be done.

I agree. It sounds like if they had a way for this potential customer to get Pro this person would easily from a customer on the fence to a happy customer. Best case scenario the user bites the bullet and gets Control4 but feels uneasy about it.

My last thought on this (at least for this thread);

Control4 has a good product that does what it promises.

The dealer model is needed because integration can be a handful and not easy for most users, especially those who don't have or want to dedicate the time to learn the product. There will always be customers who "just want it to work".

Control4 could build a lot of good will and brand loyalty by letting users who have purchased their systems through a dealer have a copy of Pro licensed to that system if they want it.

When the day comes that the technology for whole home AV and automation has been simplified and bigger players go all in, Control4 will need to hope that their users liked the system enough to not switch.

 

[mod220]

15 hours ago, eggzlot said:

Amazon, Apple and google have a piece of business around controlling devices mostly with voice control.  C4 doesn’t have their own voice platform and they offer a platform to connect devices.  C4 makes networking gear.  The others don’t.  C4 makes video distribution products - other don’t.  C4 makes light switches.  C4 makes Hifi speakers for theater set ups - the others don't.  Google makes a Tstat as does C4 - there happy?  Where is google, amazon or apples platform that competes with c4 - you said yourself those platforms cannot do what c4 can do.  You may not need it or want it, but that’s another story.

i always default to a car analogy- Ferrari is not competing with Jeep.  One is an SUV and one is a luxury sports car.  They both shine in some aspects but different sales volume, clients, targets etc

is they overlap sure.  Direct competitors eh. Weak argument.  It’s a free county to think so but NASDAQ doesn’t think so when you search a symbol and it matches to competitors.  

Remember these statements:

"Apple isn't a direct competitor to Blackberry or Motorola, they are a computer company"

"Tesla is not a competitor to Ford's cars, Tesla is high end and Ford is lower end"

"Netflix is not a threat to Blockbuster, Netflix is for tech guys and Blockbuster is for the regular consumer that likes to go in the stores"

So it may not look head to head now, but there is no question C4 is quickly going to have to compete head to head on various levels, with far bigger, stronger, more powerful brands.  

As far as Jeep not competing with Ferrari, that validates my point.  C4 is now the undeniable luxury home automation option compared to the DIY.  The issue, is the model still suggests that DIY consumers don't exist, are incapable of doing any integration/programming, and they have to pay more money and spend more time doing things with a dealer, that they really should do on their own from an App.  It's one thing for Ferrari to only want to service their cars, very niche specialized engineering, and I'm guessing most Ferrari owners don't want to risk damaging such an expensive car. (like high end users of C4, who spened $250k on in home technology, they fit that model perfectly).  But the average Joe driving a Jeep, if learning they could not replace a light bulb or washer fluid on their own, would clearly find another option.  That's what C4 is doing now, telling Jeep owners they are viewed as Ferrari owners and with that Ferrari costs in a market that is quickly going the other direction.  

This is all getting redundant for everyone, and exhaustive, so I hope to close by simply saying, the idea of C4 not having competition is a foolish perspective, and they need to revise the model.  Dealer = high end advanced automation, App = all the basics consumers can clearly handle on their own.   Costs will also have to come down across the board, they can command a premium since they have a great product, but the premium today is out of the range, this will show in the coming years as either C4 profits will decline due to less users, or, prices will come down to increase new users.   

14 hours ago, msgreenf said:

The most striking thing about this thread is that you clearly want control4.  Why else would you be here?  That means it fulfills capabilities that other products don't in the market.  That means that the tradeoffs of a dealer model were worthy enough for you to look at because it does so much more.  If it didn't do more for you and leave you intrigued you would have went to best buy and been screwing in BT light bulbs and putting ATV's in every room and be done.

So what about HomeKit don't you like that you want to change control4?

You are exactly right, C4 right now is exactly what I want.  Why don't I pull the trigger?  Because I think things through long term, I'm not waiting for new technology, progress never stops with innovation.  But I want to see the marketplace improve, see the C4 model shift away from the dealer (not entirely, still needed for install, advanced automation) and more to the consumer, and I think they will have to do a drastic cost reduction soon.  Shareholders will not sit idle while they continue to see a tech investment lag so far behind other tech options.

13 hours ago, therockhr said:

I agree. It sounds like if they had a way for this potential customer to get Pro this person would easily from a customer on the fence to a happy customer. Best case scenario the user bites the bullet and gets Control4 but feels uneasy about it.

My last thought on this (at least for this thread);

Control4 has a good product that does what it promises.

The dealer model is needed because integration can be a handful and not easy for most users, especially those who don't have or want to dedicate the time to learn the product. There will always be customers who "just want it to work".

Control4 could build a lot of good will and brand loyalty by letting users who have purchased their systems through a dealer have a copy of Pro licensed to that system if they want it.

When the day comes that the technology for whole home AV and automation has been simplified and bigger players go all in, Control4 will need to hope that their users liked the system enough to not switch.

 

I don't have the exact answer, but expanding the consumer control end and reducing the workload on the dealer seems so logical.  Why not expand the capabilities of 4sync giving consumer more control of basic adding/removing of devices, and have dealers focused on new installs, major projects, advanced automation, etc.  CA-1 to me is the shot over the bow, proving two things.  A) they are expanding their distribution team to include home builders, electricians, etc. not just the "AV guys" they historically went through (dealer loyalty? ha) and b) as much as they deny the fear of the DIY model, CA-1 is clearly them trying to compete more closely with the DIY Homekits of the world.  will they cross sell them up to bigger systems?  Maybe, but the more obvious goal was to have access to the DIY consumer that a $3-5k minimum system cost, plus ongoing service expenses, would they never fly.  Think of the size of the millennial generation, the future mass consumer, which is a demographic larger in size than the baby boomers, far more cost conscious and tech savvy.  My guess is the median age on this site is around 40-50 years old, a generation that wasn't raised with anywhere near the technology we have today, while now being at an income level to support a C4 type product.  But that is the present, quickly to become the past, C4 knows the consumers of the next 30 years will view the world very differently.  

While the dealers here are boasting about the Charlie Kindel hire, from what I've read about him so far, my guess is he will quickly disrupt the current dealer model.  Amazon and Microsoft were successful BECAUSE they were consumer facing, because they could market directly to the public, and simplify products down to the consumer level.  Very simply, they achieved scale never possible with the limitations of a higher cost, clunkier,  third party dealer network.  Technology always wipes out the middle man (Kayak, UBER, Schwab come to mind), and these guys clearly know technology, so middle men, be warned...

[msgreenf]

30 minutes ago, mod220 said:

While the dealers here are boasting about the Charlie Kindel hire, from what I've read about him so far, my guess is he will quickly disrupt the current dealer model.

i guess you didn't read his blog on why he hired an installer...

[msgreenf]

Microsoft is an enterprise focused company; not consumer focused.

[mod220]

23 minutes ago, msgreenf said:

i guess you didn't read his blog on why he hired an installer...

I guess you missed the part where he outlined a incredibly advanced system, where I've continued to say a dealer model makes sense for most of these consumers.  Does this sound like a generic install:

I went with 148 intelligent lighting loads controlled by Control4’s panelized lighting, 52 Control4 keypads, five rooms of Multi-room 4K video including an Atmos home theater setup, 10 zones of Multi-Room audio using Triad amplifiers and speakers, two Control4 door stations, 15 Pakedge cameras, 9 Control4 smart thermostats, five Pakedge wireless access points, a host of Pakedge gigabit switches, and more. My fireplaces and the air compressor in my garage are all controlled by Control4 too. My network has 98 IP devices 58 Zigbee devices."

You guys keep taking the most extreme examples and using them to support the "dealer does all" model...High end specialization of any industry will always warrant a dealer/installer/concierge.  As I've pointed out, just like all consumers use to need a travel agency, or a taxi company, or a stock broker, now the average consumer can bypass them all and use Kayak, UBER, and Schwab.  Only the wealthy now need a travel agent, a car service, or a financial professional.   At the dealer level, the big shift should be on the high end consumer with advanced installs, your head is in the sand if you think your C4 business the next five years will look anything like it did the last five years.  But place your bets, will be fun to compare notes in a few years...

Its very clear the direction of C4 (regardless of what you think or what they say in their press releases) is shifting away from the dealer and towards the consumer.

Be honest with yourself if I told you a few years ago that around the corner Control4 was going to launch an app where clients themselves, independent of dealers, could control a lot of their systems (4Sight), and they would also launch a controller targeting DIY users and NOT have AV control (CA-1), what would your response have been?  Denial.  just like you guys are doing today...the path is clear, why are you fighting the reality?

 

22 minutes ago, msgreenf said:

Microsoft is an enterprise focused company; not consumer focused.

They are now, but they went mainstream based off having a user friendly GUI that was consumer friendly, and have continued to have a robust consumer focus (retail stores, Xbox, Office) that doesn't require a third party professional.

[eggzlot]

57 minutes ago, mod220 said:

 

This is all getting redundant for everyone, and exhaustive, so I hope to close by simply saying, the idea of C4 not having competition is a foolish perspective, and they need to revise the model.    

 

C4 has competition.  its Crestron, Savant, URC, Elan and maybe AMX to some extent (I believe AMX is bigger in the commercial space but I could be wrong).  Who said they do not have competition?  

[mod220]

31 minutes ago, eggzlot said:

C4 has competition.  its Crestron, Savant, URC, Elan and maybe AMX to some extent (I believe AMX is bigger in the commercial space but I could be wrong).  Who said they do not have competition?  

I'm saying they have competitors far beyond their obvious direct peer group comparisons, i.e. Apple, Google, Amazon, etc.  You guys keep dismissing these competitors since they don't compete head to head across the board.

[eggzlot]

6 minutes ago, mod220 said:

I'm saying they have competitors far beyond their obvious direct peer group comparisons, i.e. Apple, Google, Amazon, etc.  You guys keep dismissing these competitors since they don't compete head to head across the board.

C4 I am sure watches what those companies do.  They saw adoption of Alexa, so they made Alexa part of the C4 ecosystem and guess what, Alexa is now a native skill within C4.  C4 saw the open Android platform by Google and they dumped Flash and now use Android for the T3 touchscreens.  C4 does not live and work in a bubble.

You are comparing stock prices and growth and other factors between C4 and Amazon and I said that was not how I would view it.  Then saying we have our heads in the sand thinking C4 has no competition.  The CI market is small and there are several players, C4 has a lot of competition!  Which is why they purchased Triad, it is why they purchased Pakedge, it is why they purchased Leaf....They are trying to position themselves to dominate THEIR market.

You want C4 to leave the CI market, they want to dominate the CI market.  The CI Market will ebb and flow with residential builds, strong economy, etc.  No doubting that.  But the CI market has been around 20-30+ years and will likely continue to be around. 

and I'll still harken back to Ferrari vs Jeep.  or Ferrari vs Fiat or Mini Cooper, I don't care.  I think Ferrari is dumb to only build luxury sports cars.  I want to drive a Ferrari and I want to drive an SUV and I want to pay about $35,000.  There are multitudes more $35,000 cars/suvs sold in the US compared to $150,000+ so Ferrari should get into the $35,000 market.  Bike sales have grown over automobile sales in the last 20 years.  So maybe Ferrari should come out with a 10 speed bike?  I mean a nice one, but still, a 10 speed bike.

[therockhr]

8 minutes ago, eggzlot said:

Bike sales have grown over automobile sales in the last 20 years.  So maybe Ferrari should come out with a 10 speed bike?  I mean a nice one, but still, a 10 speed bike.

https://store.ferrari.com/en-us/collection/bianchi-for-scuderia-ferrari

[eggzlot]

3 minutes ago, therockhr said:

https://store.ferrari.com/en-us/collection/bianchi-for-scuderia-ferrari

my life is now complete!  You rock - thanks!  Ferrari listened to me.  Maybe now I can make Control4 open up Composer Pro 

[mod220]

The big difference between Ferrari and C4 is while they are both luxury brands, they have very different backgrounds..

C4 was a pioneer in their space and for a time was the ONLY option.  The market has now matured, and they are now one of MANY options, and have to adjust to being a luxury brand.

Ferrari was not a pioneer in their space, and entered as a LUXURY option.  So they don't need to go from luxury to broad, the way C4 has to go broad to luxury.

You continue to make terrible comparisons that actually work against your arguments, and support mine.  Bottom line if you are a C4 dealer, you are in trouble.  The consumer sees the future, C4 sees the future, while many of the dealers do not.  They are the travel agents of 2018...

[msgreenf]

1 minute ago, mod220 said:

C4 was a pioneer in their space and for a time was the ONLY option.  The market has now matured, and they are now one of MANY options, and have to adjust to being a luxury brand.

 

C4 was never the only player in this space.

[msgreenf]

2 minutes ago, mod220 said:

You continue to make terrible comparisons that actually work against your arguments, and support mine.  Bottom line if you are a C4 dealer, you are in trouble.  The consumer sees the future, C4 sees the future, while many of the dealers do not.  They are the travel agents of 2018...

I'm not saying you are right or wrong but there are still very successful travel agents in 2018.  And they still have a place in the world.

[mod220]

7 minutes ago, msgreenf said:

C4 was never the only player in this space.

compared to the modern players yes there were, we can at least say they were one of the only options.  I know Creston, Savant, and some others have been around as well, but from early 2000s until the last 2-3 years, C4 was recognized as the primary go to brand for general residential home automation, no?

6 minutes ago, msgreenf said:

I'm not saying you are right or wrong but there are still very successful travel agents in 2018.  And they still have a place in the world.

The ones who focus on luxury, group travel, bigger ticket items, as I have said many times in this thread do in fact exist.  But how many of them are there now vs 10 or 20 years ago?  I book 50-100 trips a year, all online, or on an app...when do i use a travel agent?  The once every five year international vacation.   I'm not saying all C4 dealers will go away, just most of them.  The only ones that survive will need to focus on large, higher end projects, as the current bread and butter average user will end up going DIY or benefit from the inevitable shift C4 makes (heck its already happening) providing more direct to consumer options.  Just watch... 

[msgreenf]

I also don't think your definition of lux holds.  For example, I have about 55 lighting loads in my house, 9 TV's on control4.  Do you consider that lux or mainstream? I have a 4000 SQFT home, nothing palatial by any stretch, a nice size home. and 11 zones of audio

[msgreenf]

5 minutes ago, mod220 said:

early 2000s until the last 2-3 years, C4 was recognized as the primary go to brand for general residential home automation, no?

Don't necessarily agree.  Creston has always been viewed as the high end brand.  Control4 as the more moderate brand.  RTI even in there...all these guys have grown up together.

[mod220]

It's funny, a few days ago when I started all this, from the outside looking in it appeared C4 wasn't seeing the big picture.  The more I learn and deeper I dive down, its pretty apparent, the dealers are the issue here.  C4 is doing a classic "say one thing and do another" trick and many of the dealers are oblivious.

"We will always be loyal to our dealers!"  - then launch CA-1 to be sold by contractors and electricians

"We are the go to for AV needs" - then launch CA-1 with no AV

"We do not see a threat from DIY" then launch CA-1 to target DIY clients

"We believe the only way a system works is if dealers control 100% of install/service" - then launch 4Sight to grant customers direct control

But many dealers don't seem to get this...

[mod220]

4 minutes ago, msgreenf said:

I also don't think your definition of lux holds.  For example, I have about 55 lighting loads in my house, 9 TV's on control4.  Do you consider that lux or mainstream? I have a 4000 SQFT home, nothing palatial by any stretch, a nice size home. and 11 zones of audio

Your setup sounds upper mainstream, most people don't have 9 TV in a 4k foot house, and I'd venture if you weren't in the industry you wouldn't either.  

 

3 minutes ago, msgreenf said:

Don't necessarily agree.  Creston has always been viewed as the high end brand.  Control4 as the more moderate brand.  RTI even in there...all these guys have grown up together.

I said "primary go to brand for general residential" - consistent with your view of them as "moderate."  Without doing any research I'd have to believe C4 has far more general residential users than Savant, Creston, etc., correct?

[mstafford388]

10 minutes ago, mod220 said:

It's funny, a few days ago when I started all this, from the outside looking in it appeared C4 wasn't seeing the big picture.  The more I learn and deeper I dive down, its pretty apparent, the dealers are the issue here.  C4 is doing a classic "say one thing and do another" trick and many of the dealers are oblivious.

"We will always be loyal to our dealers!"  - then launch CA-1 to be sold by contractors and electricians

"We are the go to for AV needs" - then launch CA-1 with no AV

"We do not see a threat from DIY" then launch CA-1 to target DIY clients

"We believe the only way a system works is if dealers control 100% of install/service" - then launch 4Sight to grant customers direct control

But many dealers don't seem to get this...

The CA-1 still requires a dealer to do the install.  The builder program is designed to engage volume builders with Control4 dealers.  contractors and electricians do not have the ability to sell any control4 gear unless they are a dealer.  

so is Control4 not allowed to be the go to for AV needs unless every product they launch has AV? 

The CA-1 is not designed to target DIY clients as they cannot DIY.

then launch 4Sight...??  which has been available for a decade? 

[msgreenf]

And I am not a dealer

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