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An article on the future challenges of Control4


Anzir

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Kevin, for some of these guys it's not about their equipment its about their investment.

If you bought at $20 your not very happy right now

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This is not an investing forum

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This is not an investing forum

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Just because you don't like the topic doesn't mean it's not fair to discuss. There has NEVER been a restriction of what we can discuss and this pertains directly to Control4.
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This is not an investing forum

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No, but it is a forum about Control4. Not like the conversation is about Hooters or TiltedKilt. Though those might be more fun.

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I dunno. A while back you bought the HC250 and you bought a android/iDevice licence. 599 plus licence.

Now the licence is included and the price went up. 750.

So some of the MSRP change is bundling

Thanks SMHarman. Just got back from travel. You're correct... $750 with license. Appreciate the clarification.

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I'm just saying that I don't come here for investment advice. Sorry, but I wouldn't trust anyone here for investment advice.

I come here for home automation advice

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Agreed! here for HA discussion...

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Thats the great thing about a forum though... You can have all types of conversations going on but only have to follow the ones that interest you.  

 

I follow maybe 10 general threads at AVS even though there are hundreds or thousands of threads active. 

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  • 3 months later...

Julie is a not only a C4 apologst - she is a C4 homer.

 

See this article: http://www.cepro.com/article/control4_ctrl_rallies_on_alarm.com_news_short_interest_DIY_woes/K648

 

where she states "Second, enthusiasm (more like hysteria) seems to have waned for DIY home automation, where Control4 does not play. What’s bad for DIY could very well be good for Control4"

 

However, in the current article: "A disdain for professionally installed home automation in an era of DIY?" & "Don’t Be a DIY Hater and Other Advice for Control4" & "With little buzz from Control4 lately, especially in the super-hip DIY market,"

 

Julie has a great magazine...but

 

All I want to know is whether or not my dealer (and programmer) will be able to maintain my system after this company is sold for cents on the dollar? Early on (2008) when I joined this forum I commented on how difficult it is for a company in Utah to be successful as a tech company. Not in a hot bed of innovation or talent - not a place with multiple tech companies where employees move around taking innovative ideas with them...

 

While I love my C4 home - I rarely recommend it to others because of the C4 model and the inability of the end user to easily manipulate the experience. I was so excited when CISCO partnered with them (and invested in the company) and had high hopes they would force innovation upon the company. Cisco has bailed and is supporting competitors....such a bummer

 

As I stated years ago - it has to be tough to succeed as a tech company in Utah (nothing against Utah - lots of friends and colleagues there) - tech companies belong on the coasts - where innovation moves along much more quickly.

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Its a shame for C4, they can not see the wood because of the trees.

 

Lets hope Q2 as good results if not could be a major blow which they could struggle to return form.

 

Remember they did say Q1 was bad because they back orders of new products - which will go into Q2. 

 

At the moment the share price needs some good news.

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It is interesting that the article said that some investors are stupid. You don't get someone's money (professional investors mostly) by calling them stupid. Look for below 5 on the stock price if the next financial conference call disappoints. Wall Street will be looking for a change in strategy and not more of the same. The last conference call sounded more like "the dog ate my homework" rather than how they were actually going to show greater growth.

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If Control4 was serious about growing I would suggest they do the following:

 

Create a new hub to be sold via retail outlets. This hub would contain no AV control (think Lutron SmartBridge or Staples Connect). It would be compatible with select C4 wireless dimmers, C4 keypads, C4 thermostats, Honeywell Wifi and Nest thermostats, existing C4 compatible door locks, and select Card Access devices like motion sensors and door contacts. I would also partner with an existing shade manufacturer to include a C4 compatible zigbee radio. All those devices mentioned would be available through retail. Configuration and setup for the hub would be through an app.

 

If a customer then decides they want to add AV control, then they would contact an authorized Control4 dealer. The retail hub would be compatible with certain whole home audio systems like C4 amps, Sonos, Russound, Mirage. The installation and configuration of this would still be done through the app and can be done by the customer. The software should also allow a C4 dealer to easily take control of the system if the customer authorizes them to. An in wall touchscreen would also be compatible with the retail hub. The touchscreen should need no configuration as once it is added to the network it should find the hub and be configured. C4 amp and touchscreen can only be purchased through an authorized dealer.

 

If the user wants anything beyond that subset then they would have to upgrade to a new controller. This controller would be programmed in more the traditional way. Good thing for the customer is all their existing devices they bought with the retail hub are still good.

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All I want to know is whether or not my dealer (and programmer) will be able to maintain my system after this company is sold for cents on the dollar? Early on (2008) when I joined this forum I commented on how difficult it is for a company in Utah to be successful as a tech company. Not in a hot bed of innovation or talent - not a place with multiple tech companies where employees move around taking innovative ideas with them...

 

As I stated years ago - it has to be tough to succeed as a tech company in Utah (nothing against Utah - lots of friends and colleagues there) - tech companies belong on the coasts - where innovation moves along much more quickly.

LOL WUT?

 

http://www.newyorker.com/business/currency/utah-became-next-silicon-valley

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/05/upshot/what-is-the-next-next-silicon-valley.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silicon_slopes

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100860405

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If Control4 was serious about growing I would suggest they do the following:

 

Create a new hub to be sold via retail outlets. This hub would contain no AV control (think Lutron SmartBridge or Staples Connect). It would be compatible with select C4 wireless dimmers, C4 keypads, C4 thermostats, Honeywell Wifi and Nest thermostats, existing C4 compatible door locks, and select Card Access devices like motion sensors and door contacts. I would also partner with an existing shade manufacturer to include a C4 compatible zigbee radio. All those devices mentioned would be available through retail. Configuration and setup for the hub would be through an app.

 

If a customer then decides they want to add AV control, then they would contact an authorized Control4 dealer. The retail hub would be compatible with certain whole home audio systems like C4 amps, Sonos, Russound, Mirage. The installation and configuration of this would still be done through the app and can be done by the customer. The software should also allow a C4 dealer to easily take control of the system if the customer authorizes them to. An in wall touchscreen would also be compatible with the retail hub. The touchscreen should need no configuration as once it is added to the network it should find the hub and be configured. C4 amp and touchscreen can only be purchased through an authorized dealer.

 

If the user wants anything beyond that subset then they would have to upgrade to a new controller. This controller would be programmed in more the traditional way. Good thing for the customer is all their existing devices they bought with the retail hub are still good.

so not just the hub is being sold to the public, but I am assuming the C4 hardware you mentioned like switches/dimmers, key locks, etc.  That is a big retail undertaking with all the SKU's involved.  And my guess a re-write of Composer is needed to make it pretty work as "plug and play" on an app.  And maybe I am wrong, but the average person walking into a big box retailer is going to need someone to hook up their light switches and maybe even their HVAC needs.  So they are going to need "someone" to help with parts of the installation anyways.  It is not 100% DIY.  dont confuse the voice on this forum vs the voice of the "average joe".

 

Its a nice idea, just not sure it can happen so easily.

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so not just the hub is being sold to the public, but I am assuming the C4 hardware you mentioned like switches/dimmers, key locks, etc.  That is a big retail undertaking with all the SKU's involved.  And my guess a re-write of Composer is needed to make it pretty work as "plug and play" on an app.  And maybe I am wrong, but the average person walking into a big box retailer is going to need someone to hook up their light switches and maybe even their HVAC needs.  So they are going to need "someone" to help with parts of the installation anyways.  It is not 100% DIY.  dont confuse the voice on this forum vs the voice of the "average joe".

 

Its a nice idea, just not sure it can happen so easily.

 

Staples Connect and Lutron Caseta are doing it right now.

 

I would hope that Composer Express would be re-tooled and would be the app that customers would use to configure and use the system. 

 

Control4 would sell just a few SKU's in retail.  Probably just the following:

 

New Control4 Hub

Wireless In-Wall Dimmer

Wireless In-Wall Switch

Wireless Plug-In Lamp Dimmer

Wireless Hybrid 5 button Keypad Dimmer

Card Access Wireless Motion Sensor

Card Access Wireless Door Contact

Wireless C4 Thermostat

Wireless Kwikset Door Lock

 

The new hub would be compatible with more C4 gear but those would go through a dealer (more dimmers, more keypads, more contacts, more sensors, Yale door locks, etc). Things like panelized lighting and AV control (outside of select whole home audio) would be handled with a different advanced controller and programmed in a more traditional way. Even with the advanced hub though the new Control4 app would allow the user to add the items from above.

 

C4 should not be targeting "average joes"; they should be targeting semi tech-savy hobbyists with the new hub.

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Why new hardware? Why not just license pro to end users after a professional install (locked to their controller) and give part of the licensing fee to the dealers for support. If they want to just have HE then have licensing (cheaper than pro) for that also. Kind of like Microsoft office professional and a toned down version of MS word. This will generate recurring revenues and sell more hardware and also should keep dealers happy. If someone orders new devices, drivers have an option where you can install yourself or have dealer install and give the dealers a cut of the price. If you chose dealer install then they can charge to install it. And it seems that most dealers don't want to deal with mundane stuff anyway. Most dealers seem to be in a rush to finish an install and it would be much nicer for users to be able to whatever they want once an installation is complete. Most of the complaints here have been about unresponsive dealers after an installation is complete. Obviously most people here will laugh me off but I don't see a whole lot of laughing at this stock price.

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Where does one sell in large quantity to target the semi tech savvy hobbyists?  That is a very niche market.  So going to sell at Newegg or TigerDirect or another online vendor?  If they want C4 in more hands, they need to make a bigger play for retail like the examples you gave above.  Also how would pricing compare?  Looking at some vendors online, other zigbee/zwave type of switches sell for 1/3 to 1/2 of the price.  The Kwikset lock is also more expensive for the C4 version.  What is the proposition for someone to spend more on the C4 hardware vs the Lutron option especially if they cannot play in the AV space?  I knew C4 was more expensive (programming and hardware) than other options, but it was also more robust with AV and security options which is why I made the choice to pay the premium.  Cant see a ton of $199 keypads or $120-$150 dimmers being sold when the competition has them at $40-$60.

 

If I am a legacy user (which I am) and do not have the new hub could I still add devices from the above list?  What color dimmers (c4 has 3 types) and switches (hence my comment about tons of SKUs).  So if I got this new hub and then I wanted to add AV or something "fancier" I'd need an HC 250 or an HC 800?  That may turn off people too looking at their initial hub purchase as wasted and may not explore that other avenue.  

 

Creston I believe is trying something like this - but not at retail level.  But a smaller "dumbed down" version of the bigger platform - Pyng.  I wonder how that is doing and if they have any data on it.

 

I am just playing Devils Advocate, not against the idea, just do not see it as being realistic in the near future.

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C4 needs to figure out a way to sell more products and make them more accessible.  Times have changed - the "average joe" can now walk into an Apple retail store and walkout with: Belkin WeMo switches/sensors, Lutron Caseta switches, Ecobee3 thermostat, Nest thermostat, Rachio Iro irrigation, Philips Hue bulbs, Chamberlain garage controller, August door locks and Kwikset Kevo.  http://store.apple.com/us/accessories/all-accessories/connected-home

 
Another example - Target just opened up an experimental store in San Francisco called Target Open House that only sells connected home devices:   http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/248301
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They can buy those products at an apple store - but can they get a platform via apple that makes them all talk together?  Homekit is still over a year old in announcement yet nothing really functional to show.  People can buy that hardware and install it - but can they have the garage door open the lights turn on in the house?

 

You are mixing up selling "smart" items v making sure these items communicate with each other.  Apple is providing hardware but not an interface (yet) for all the devices to talk to each other.

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They can buy those products at an apple store - but can they get a platform via apple that makes them all talk together? Homekit is still over a year old in announcement yet nothing really functional to show. People can buy that hardware and install it - but can they have the garage door open the lights turn on in the house?

You are mixing up selling "smart" items v making sure these items communicate with each other. Apple is providing hardware but not an interface (yet) for all the devices to talk to each other.

Sure they are not connected yet but what has this "connected platform" argument done for C4? The strategy they have is not working. I guess we'll be talking about how great C4 is and how no one realizes it as they ride into bankruptcy.

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You are mixing up selling "smart" items v making sure these items communicate with each other.  Apple is providing hardware but not an interface (yet) for all the devices to talk to each other.

You should totally check out this video from last month: https://developer.apple.com/videos/wwdc/2015/?id=210  It spells out how HomeKit devices talk to each other now (i.e.: Lutron Caseta) and in much greater detail for iOS9. (i.e.: scenes, triggers, events, schedules etc... )    For example, by default iOS9 includes 4 scenes for: wake-up, away, return and goodnight to control any HomeKit compatible devices.    

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Where does one sell in large quantity to target the semi tech savvy hobbyists?  That is a very niche market.  So going to sell at Newegg or TigerDirect or another online vendor?  If they want C4 in more hands, they need to make a bigger play for retail like the examples you gave above.  Also how would pricing compare?  Looking at some vendors online, other zigbee/zwave type of switches sell for 1/3 to 1/2 of the price.  The Kwikset lock is also more expensive for the C4 version.  What is the proposition for someone to spend more on the C4 hardware vs the Lutron option especially if they cannot play in the AV space?  I knew C4 was more expensive (programming and hardware) than other options, but it was also more robust with AV and security options which is why I made the choice to pay the premium.  Cant see a ton of $199 keypads or $120-$150 dimmers being sold when the competition has them at $40-$60.

 

I would start selling at Best Buy, Home Depot, Lowes, Amazon, directly on the C4 website and of course through existing dealers. I would also do like Sonos and Apple and make sure that the price is consistent no matter where you buy from. Would also be nice if C4 had some kind of program where existing dealers would get rewarded for providing free installation of this new hub if the user purchases over a certain dollar amount. Gives the dealer the chance to establish a relationship and to maybe up sell during the installation with a touchscreen or whole home audio.

 

As for being more expensive I think C4 would have do to a little more price adjustment for retail but still keep a price consistent with a premium brand. If the product is superior then people will pay more.

 

 

If I am a legacy user (which I am) and do not have the new hub could I still add devices from the above list?  What color dimmers (c4 has 3 types) and switches (hence my comment about tons of SKUs).  So if I got this new hub and then I wanted to add AV or something "fancier" I'd need an HC 250 or an HC 800?  That may turn off people too looking at their initial hub purchase as wasted and may not explore that other avenue.  

 

The advanced controller would have more options to support some of the legacy devices but the plan would be to move things over to the new model; not necessarily the new hub though. Most of the bigger installations would be migrated over to the advanced controller with no need to introduce the retail hub as the advanced controller can to all the things the retail hub can do including allowing the user to add certain devices via the C4 app.

 

As for colors of dimmers; Best Buy, Home Depot, Lowes, Amazon would only stock white. C4 website, dealers would have more color options.

 

If you wanted to add AV (outside of select whole home audio) then yes, you would need the advanced controller (in this hypothetical world forget that the 800 and 250 exist anymore). You would be out of the investment you made in the retail hub (lets say retail cost ~$250-$400) but maybe the dealer offers a buy back offer so that they will knock of $100-$200 of the advanced controller (advanced controller cost ~$750-$1000). Dealer could then sell the refurbished retail hub at a discount (something that Amazon and the big box stores can't do).

 

Creston I believe is trying something like this - but not at retail level.  But a smaller "dumbed down" version of the bigger platform - Pyng.  I wonder how that is doing and if they have any data on it.

 

I am just playing Devils Advocate, not against the idea, just do not see it as being realistic in the near future.

 

Yes Crestron has something similar and I think it is a good idea. Only problem is it is still needs a dealer to install anything.

 

Investors don't like that customers can't buy this product and install it themselves. This is fact. C4 is going to have to drastically rethink their model or they will fold. I don't see them being able to penetrate the commercial space where AMX and Crestron dominate. And I don't see them being able to grab much more of the high end home space that they already have.

 

I'm just spit balling ideas here. Getting users in the door with a retail hub/version of the product is the only way I can see them making it in the public trading world.

 

Another thing I would do is make the retail hub homekit compatible. Investors would love that. Also would open up the door to be sold in Apple stores where it seems everything sells pretty well.

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